The southwest monsoon, which usually arrives in Kerala on June 1, marking the onset of rains critical to Indian agriculture and the rural economy, will likely arrive slightly early over Kerala, and, based on its current progress, is a week ahead of schedule.
It is already advancing towards South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal, and will reach these locations by May 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Thursday.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next five days and isolated heavy rain from May 14 to 16, the weather office added.
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50kmph gusting to 60kmph is also likely over South Andaman Sea on May 15 and 16, it said. The southwest monsoon normally arrives over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 22.
“Monsoon is expected to reach South Andaman Sea around May 15. It is on time because it is normally expected to reach Port Blair around May 20-22. Monsoon can always arrive 1-2 days early. Westerly winds had strengthened even before Asani had formed. Cyclone Asani was a transient system and the westerly burst helped it develop. Westerly winds strengthened further after it developed,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. “In one-two days, we will also give the forecast for monsoon arrival over Kerala.”
“Monsoon update: Good News! @Indiametdept extended range forecasts consistently suggest favourable conditions for an early monsoon onset over Kerala & its northward movement. Pl watch out @Indiametdept official forecast scheduled on 15 May for the exact date of monsoon onset,” tweeted M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“IMD’s extended range forecast indicates slightly early arrival of monsoon over Kerala. But we have to wait for the statistical model forecast . Cyclone Asani has managed to pull the monsoon winds forward which can be seen in the satellite images also but now we have to see if the winds can sustain on their own. Let’s wait till remnants of Asani disaggregate completely,” said DS Pai, director at the Institute of Climate Change Studies, Kerala, and a former scientist at IMD.
“There are other parameters also which should be met for monsoon onset to be declared. Early arrival of monsoon over Kerala depends on whether these other parameters are met. The Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) should reduce for example which means there should be clouding. For now, it does seem like monsoon will also arrive early over Kerala,” said Palawat.
If after May 10, at least 60% of 14 stations — Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore — report rainfall of 2.5mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset of the monsoon over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind pattern is south-westerly and OLR is low.
OLR measures how much energy (heat) is emitted by land and the atmosphere.
The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is especially critical to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending.
Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the country’s net cultivated area that has no irrigation. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.
