The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan brings into being a new Islamic emirate at India’s doorstep that is likely to be a lightning rod for Islamists everywhere with implications for India as regards terrorism and radicalisation.
Unlike the Islamic State terror group, which was located much further away in Iraq-Syria, the Taliban have returned in India’s immediate neighbourhood with Pakistan-based terror groups like Lashkar and Jaish already detected in Afghanistan, working loosely with armed militias. Sources expressed confidence in dealing with increased pressure in Jammu & Kashmir in the wake of Pakistan-based groups utilising new bases and recruits for the jihad against India. They said that the security situation will factor additional challenges though Taliban have yet to speak specifically on Kashmir.
The Kashmir assessment, however, is only a part of a bigger picture that will become clearer as the policies of the new regime become clearer. An unpredictable regime, with poor control over borders and terror training camps, will be bad news not just for India but the world. A government with more moderate goals, and a clear leadership, may be easier to deal with.
Founded by charismatic Ahmad Shah Massoud, assassinated by Al-Qaeda just days before 9/11, Northern Alliance could once again head the resistance against the Taliban Yet, control of a full fledged state, will be read as a major win for Islamic causes, including several that believe in fundamentalist goals, not to speak of more conservative practise of Islam. Even in the absence of the Taliban, India has had to deal with Indian IS recruits who headed to Afghanistan in the hope of finding their way to Iraq.
Outside the main iron gate of the Indian embassy in Kabul, a group of Taliban fighters waited — armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Inside the compound were 150 Indian diplomats and nationals — growing increasingly nervous as they watched news of the Taliban Another factor being watched closely is what some close to three lakh Afghan army personnel, who have been “disbanded”, will do.
If they do not find accommodation in the new set up, or are persecuted, they might be a thorn in the flesh for the Taliban which on its own commands an estimated 75,000 fighters. The uncertain and unpredictable situation in Afghanistan will demand close monitoring and anticipation on part of Indian agencies and analysts.
